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kingpotato

Let's talk about the schedule

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Besides it being a pretty weak slate. Not only is this one of the rare years that Boise plays an FCS team, they also draw the weak three out of the West (UNLV, UH, SJSU), and their P5 team is coming off of their worst season in a gazillion years. Typically when it comes to the Access Bowl, Boise has two advantages. It has the national brand so they often get the benefit of the doubt having proven themselves many times. But they also, generally, have a strong SOS... which they won't have this year. Honestly, outside of Air Force (which should be very good this year), I don't see a single team on the schedule that will have more than 7 wins. Boise has gotten into the Access Bowl with two loses, but they almost certainly will need to go undefeated with this schedule. They lose to Florida State and there is almost no chance to make up for that loss.

Speaking of Air Force. That is going to be a very tough game (per usual) and the schedule gods gave them to Boise early in the season on a short week. I can't think of a worse team to have a short week against. Then you have a rivalry game against an improved BYU team after seven straight weeks without a bye. Speaking of the bye, Boise gets theirs before SJSU... which is almost like having back-to-back byes. Then you look at two of their coldest destination games are the last two games of the season (Logan and Fort Collins). It's going to be a tricky season to navigate, but in the end it will be viewed as a weak slate. 

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It seems this coming season more than past will require impressive wins rather than just wins. Everyone will see the schedule is not killers row so dominance will be needed IMO. 

Now I know that may mean less developmental play for 2+ stringers so I doubt Harsin will take that route. He thinks far more long term than do I as a fan. Haha

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38 minutes ago, HoustonBronco said:

It seems this coming season more than past will require impressive wins rather than just wins. Everyone will see the schedule is not killers row so dominance will be needed IMO. 

Now I know that may mean less developmental play for 2+ stringers so I doubt Harsin will take that route. He thinks far more long term than do I as a fan. Haha

Yeah, that worked out for Utah State last year. They had a horrible schedule, but blew out the teams they were supposed to beat. 

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We should dominate in our conference games, including the game with USU.  The key is going to be keeping a business like approach.  Just take care of business.  I don't believe wins against UNLV, for example are going to move the needle much when it comes to NY6 games.  But, winning convincingly in our conference schedule and faring well in the games of media interest, FSU & BYU coupled with poor showings in the AAC,we can get back to a big payday this year.

FWIW, I really like this defense this year.  If we can stay healthy, the NY6 game will be within our reach. JMO.

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According to ESPN FPI (ranked #42):

at FSU (28.3% chance of winning)

Marshall (80.8%)

Portland State (98.7%)

Air Force (78.3%)

at UNLV (83.9)

Hawaii (87.0%)

at  BYU (42.7%)

at SJSU (88.1%)

Wyoming (86.2%)

New Mexico (94.0%)

Utah State (72.1%)

Colorado State (82.5%)

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If you believe those numbers, the likelihood for Boise State is 9-3 or 10-2:

image.thumb.png.a718924a78508e7500fc7892efd11fdc.png

 

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