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Prediction: Fresno's defense is going to take a hit this season

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They do lose some key members, including the MW DPOTY, all three LBs (the strength of their defense last year), and four of their top five tacklers (five of the top seven). But that's not the reason why I see them being quite a bit worse this year. They saw an INSANE amount of new/FR/back up QBs. It's nuts. Let's look:

vs Idaho - well they just suck and an FCS team should get their ass handed to them... especially when the coach plays his son at QB

vs Minnesota - They catch them with a FR QB starting his second game ever. Not only that, they start NINE FR, including seven on offense.

vs UCLA - again, they get a team starting a trFR playing in his third game and a team that is installing a brand new offense. One that sucked against everyone early in the season before catching on later.

vs Toledo - Toledo actually never really settled on one QB after losing their starter the year before. They played two all year, but they had 260+ yards of offense, 3 TDs 1 INT, and put up 27 points. But both of the QBs were 1st year "starters" in their 4th game.

vs UNR - Catches the spacepack in their first game without Gangi and face a QB starting his first game ever.

vs Wyoming - Another FR. Vanderwaal actually ended the season with the worst pass eff rating of any starting QB in the country. He was later pulled in favor of a trFR until he was injured and TVW finished the season.

vs New Mexico - First year starting QB who took over in the 3rd game of the season making his 5th start ever, under a brand new UNM offense that ended up being atrocious. Only SJSU's offense was worse (by 8 ypg).

vs Hawaii - another first year starting QB, but at least, this QB was entering his 8th start and was clicking. Hawaii goes 20-34 for 280+ yards passing, 2 TD 1 INT, with another 60+ yards rushing.

vs UNLV - another back up QB when Armani Rodgers goes down again. That offense hums with AR in there, but is garbage without him.

vs Boise State - FINALLY! This is the first QB they faced all year that had any starting experience prior to this year. Ryp goes 24-30, 270 yards, 1 TD 1 INT, 30 more yards rushing.

vs SDSU - After missing most of the year, Chapman came back and so this is the 2nd QB with starting exp, but the shuffled him and Agnew. They go 8-21 for 220 yards, 2 TDs no INTs, with another 20 yards on the ground. That was their 4th best passing total of the year.

vs SJSU - Not only are they garbage, but AGAIN, they catch a back up QB making his first start. He does go 24-41 for 304, 2 TDs 1 INT. 

They did have a good game against Ryp in the MWCG, but neither team could move the ball with the snow and Boise was without Evans (for the year) and deep threats Hightower and Shakir. Fresno actually ended with 263 total yards in regulation. That was Boise's 3rd best total on the season defensively and Fresno's worst offensively. So the conditions were bad.

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That's three FR and NINE teams where the QB had started less than four games. Boise was the only team that featured a full time starter that was a returning starter. This year for Fresno (assuming no injuries), every team except UNR returns their QB... although Fresno didn't see UNR's starter last year either.

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I think the West is going to be interesting this year. SDSU and Fresno should be top two, but I think Hawaii, UNLV, and Nevada will all be better and challenge the top teams. Could see it end up with a couple 6-2 teams of three 5-3 teams atop the division.

Based on getting Fresno and Nevada at home I’d predict SDSU wins the tiebreaker.

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5 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I think the West is going to be interesting this year. SDSU and Fresno should be top two, but I think Hawaii, UNLV, and Nevada will all be better and challenge the top teams. Could see it end up with a couple 6-2 teams of three 5-3 teams atop the division.

Based on getting Fresno and Nevada at home I’d predict SDSU wins the tiebreaker.

Agreed. It's going to be a close division. SDSU also misses both Boise and AFA which will likely be the top two teams in the Mountain and get USU at home. 

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On 7/11/2019 at 10:02 PM, bsu_alum9 said:

I think the West is going to be interesting this year. SDSU and Fresno should be top two, but I think Hawaii, UNLV, and Nevada will all be better and challenge the top teams. Could see it end up with a couple 6-2 teams of three 5-3 teams atop the division.

Based on getting Fresno and Nevada at home I’d predict SDSU wins the tiebreaker.

This is how I see it as well. Tedford is not a world beater and the drop off at QB/WR will sting big time for the Fresburgians. Their (FresNeck) Oline is nasty and a good > very good LB group will keep them in the hunt.

Nevada I don't see doing well this year whereas Lower Nevada is an unknown and I believe UH could challenge.

"Spread" coming to Aztecs, lets see if its just an alignment or an actual approach. My guess is the latter which is unfortunate as we became way too predictable.

Rocky keeps saying Utah State is all that. He doesn't mince his words much. The Scouts will be good but it always depends on where you play them in the season as their depth kills them every year.

 

Edited by McQuervo

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